Bitcoin Halving: How High Do You Think BTC Will Go?

By Bruce Ng and Juan M. Villaverde on February 05, 2020

Bitcoin’s halving event is this coming May. (Here’s an issue on the event if you need a refresher.) And this halving is expected to send the King of Crypto through the roof.

If you’ve been surfing the crypto blogosphere, you’ve probably seen a slew of Bitcoin predictions ranging from wild to wildest.

Forecasts range anywhere from $20,000 per BTC all the way up to $100,000 and beyond.

That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily wrong. It just means that picking a number for Bitcoin’s next peak is anything but an exact science.

In fact, any serious analyst or statistician would scoff at the idea that you can confidently pick a specific price level based on a sample size of just TWO prior occurrences.

And face it: When it comes to the Bitcoin halving events, that’s all we’ve got so far.

But among the various possible theories, the one that makes the most sense to us follows five relatively simple, logical steps …

Step No. 1. The first halving took place with Bitcoin at $12. And in the ensuing bull run, Bitcoin shot up to $1,158 — a mind-boggling 96.5-fold advance, or a gain of 9,550%.

Step No. 2. The second halving occurred with Bitcoin at $652. And this time, the ensuing bull run topped out with Bitcoin just under $20,000. That was a 29.6-fold surge, or a gain of 2,860%. Still spectacular? Absolutely, but …

Step No. 3. The second post-halving bull market was only about one-third (.307x to be exact) the magnitude of the first.

Step No. 4. If that pattern repeats itself, the next post-halving bull market would again be only about one-third as large as the previous. Instead of 29.6x it would be 9.1x.

Step No. 5. Assuming Bitcoin is still near current levels at the time of the next halving in May (say, about $9,000), and the next bull market peak in Bitcoin is about 9x higher, then that would give us a peak of 9x $9,000, or roughly $81,000.

Notice we’re not making that number the big headline that jumps out of the page and screams at you.

As we said, with a sample size of just two prior occurrences, any implication of precision would be deceptive.

So, if you’re a reporter or blogger reading this today, please don’t pull that number out of context.

However ...

The halving phenomenon is just one important piece of evidence supporting a major crypto bull market .

In addition to the halving analysis we’re providing here …

  • Our cycles model, based on hundreds of 20-day, 80-day and 240-day cycles, leads to similar conclusions.
  • Our Weiss Crypto Ratings model, tracking a rapid evolution of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), also points to a major bull market cycle already under way.
  • And most important of all, our ratings model sees an accelerating trend toward broader, adoption of cryptocurrencies, a major driver of future demand.

Putting it all together, here’s what we CAN say with confidence:

The May halving event IS likely to trigger a major new surge in the price of Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Bitcoin does NOT rise to new, all-time new highs, easily surpassing the $20,000 level.

Beyond $20,000, the sky’s the limit.

But pinpointing how much further Bitcoin will rise from there is not possible.

If history is any guide, market hysteria will drive it far beyond realistic levels.

At least on paper, investors in Bitcoin will make untold fortunes; investors in select altcoins, even more.

And, alas, most will get caught in the painful crash that ensues.

Best,

Bruce and Juan

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